Elections Today

Update: From the B92 web site, the live results page from 1:00 AM. There will be another election between Tadic and Nikolic, both who got around 25% of the vote. I’ll be curious to see what percentage of eligible citizens voted. There were no surprises. In the parliament elections, Nikolic’s party has a slight advantage with 73 seats to Tadic’s 68. There will be a long negotiation to form coalitions to get a majority. I can’t remember what the “magic number” of seats is to form a government.

Predsednički izbori – Tadić i Nikolić u drugom krugu (82,9% pregledanih, 61,14% izlaznost): Stanković: 6.6%, Glišić: 2.7%, Tadić: 25.4%, Koštunica: 7.2%, Dragišić: 1.7%, J. Šešelj: 3.9%, Zukorlić: 1.3%, Grujičić: 0.7%, Dačić: 14.2%, Jovanović: 5.2%, Pastor: 1.7%, Nikolić: 25.2%,

Parlamentarni izbori – SNS ispred DS (78,8% obrađenih, 61,08% izlaznost): SNS: 73 (24.1%), DS: 68 (22.4%), SPS: 44 (14.4%), DSS: 21 (6.9%), LDP: 20 (6.6%), URS: 16 (5.3%), SVM: 5 (1.9%), SDA: 1 (0.6%), Sve zajedno: 1 (0.5%), NOPO: 1 (0.6%)

by B92 12:43 AM

Below is a nice article from The Economist about today’s elections. I am predicting that there will be no clear winner and the top two, Tadic and Nikolic will be running against each other. With my Serbian friends, as the article says, they are not happy with how things are going here, but they don’t think Nikolic is the answer. It should be interesting, especially if there is heavy voter turnout.

Serbia’s elections Cliffhangers The outcomes of Serbia’s many elections on May 6th are unpredictable

ON MAY 6th the French vote for a president and the Greeks and Armenians for parliaments. For Serbs it is the big bang: they will vote for a president, a parliament, in local elections and, in the province of Vojvodina, for a regional assembly. In Kosovo too, many Serbs may vote, but this is contentious and could lead to violence.

Kosovo aside, the Serbian elections are a cliffhanger. Polls give President Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party (DS) just under 36% and Tomislav Nikolic, leader of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), just over 36%. A run-off between the two a fortnight later is likely, and the result will be influenced by the parliamentary election. Mr Tadic sells himself as pro-European and pro-reform. But he looks tired and the economy is in dire straits. One poll finds 80% of Serbs are dissatisfied and angry, 77% feel helpless and hopeless and 60% are just depressed. The latest score for the SNS and its allies is 33.5%, with the DS and its allies trailing on 28.3%. Yet it may be easier for the DS than for the SNS to find other coalition partners.

The kingmaker is likely to be Ivica Dacic, leader of the Socialist Party, which with its allies is polling at 11.8%. Mr Dacic is the artful dodger of Serbian politics. In the war years he was a spokesman for Slobodan Milosevic. When Mr Milosevic fell in 2000 and was put on trial for war crimes, Mr Dacic stepped in to save the party. Now he is interior minister and a master of populist bluster. When Serbs were arrested in Kosovo, some with election materials, he arrested some Kosovo Albanians, boasting that this was a reciprocal measure. Mr Dacic is likely to stick with the DS, but he could choose to switch horses to the SNS if they make him a better offer (such as the premiership). The SNS was started in 2008 when Mr Nikolic and Aleksandar Vucic led their followers out of the extreme nationalist Radical Party, whose leader is also on trial for war crimes.

Any new government will have a hard time.Unemployment is 24% and as much as 40% of output is in the black economy. In February, because many workers went unpaid, more Serbs got pensions than salaries. Yet foreign companies are still investing in Serbia, not least Fiat, an Italian car maker that just opened a €1 billion ($1.3 billion) factory. With little time left, it is still uncertain what will happen in Kosovo. The Serbian authorities have stepped back from trying to organise local elections for Serbs there, though two municipalities in the Serb-controlled north may still hold them. If Serbia chooses to hold presidential and parliamentary elections in the north there is little the Kosovo government can do. But if it tries to hold them in the south, where most of Kosovo’s Serbs live, there could be bloodshed. One solution may be for both sides to accept a figleaf of cover for elections from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. But NATO is taking no chances, deploying 700 more peacekeepers to deter violence. Until Serbia has a new government the European Union-sponsored dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia will remain in abeyance. Edita Tahiri, Kosovo’s chief negotiator, says she is not worried if there is a change in government in Belgrade. The talks will resume and Serbia will have to carry on making compromises, just as Kosovo does, because they have “no choice but to continue being pro-European.”

Latest Reading: “The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future”

I just completed reading Viktor Cha’s book on North Korea. He is an expert on the country and used to work on the National Security Council and is now a professor at Georgetown University. I hear much about the country in the news and wanted to learn a bit more about it. It was an excellent read and below are the salient points I am taking away from the book.

My first knowledge of Korea came from watching re-runs of the 1970s television sitcom, M*A*S*H, which was set in the Korean War. The war thankfully ended before my father was drafted into the US Army (1956), but not after over 33,00 Americans were killed.

North Korea was formed in the aftermath of World War II. The Japanese had occupied the country for a long time and after their defeat, the USSR controlled the northern part of the country and the US the southern part. The Soviets installed Kim Il-Sung as a puppet leader. Il-Sung had fought the Japanese on the side of the Russians in a foreign delegation in China. He was really young and not a politician and someone the Russians thought they could control. He soon led North Korea into a war with the south and over 50 years later, his family dynasty is still leading the country. North Korea at the end of World War II was much better off than the south. They had the Japanese infrastructure and throughout the Cold War, like Yugoslavia, played China and the USSR off each other, gaining the maximum support from both. This all fell apart with the break up of the Soviet Union.

Today South Korea is 35 times richer than North Korea. North Korea is basically a province of China, with the Chinese supporting them because of mining interests and their port. It is hard to understand how the Kim family can keep such an iron grip on the population. Part of it must be Korean culture which is submissive to authority. The Kim’s also control the population tightly through blocking information from the outside, put dissent down violently, and keep most people in utter poverty. I watched a documentary years ago about a North Korean family secretly living in China in the woods, having to give up their 5 year old son to live with relatives because they couldn’t feed him. Absolutely heart-wrenching! I was disgusted and saddened to read about the atrocities. I can’t believe there are countries like this in 2012!

Cha predicts the regime will go down soon, and I hope so. Like him, I see eventually the countries becoming unified. It makes sense that they all live on a peninsula and it is a homogeneous ethnic population. It will be difficult however because of the vast difference in wealth, knowledge and culture of the two countries, being kept apart for so long. It was also interesting to read about the nuclear weapons North Korea owns and the long history of negotiations. The US is planning for the regime’s downfall. It will be a serious change for China, which shares a border and nearby Japan, as well.

I will be following the news from the country more closely. I hope to see the day that the North Korean people are freed from tyranny. I highly recommend the book to people who want to learn more about this secretive nation.

Book Review: Srdjan Valijarević “Lake Como”

I just completed reading Serbian author Srdjan Valjarevic’s book, Lake Como. I was very curious to read the book because so few contemporary Serbian authors are translated into English. I’ve read a lot of Ivo Andrić and Daniel Kis, but no more recent authors. I would like to thank Geopoetika Publishing Company for translating a series of contemporary Serbian authors. I will definitely read others in the series.

Lake Como is the story of a Serbian writer who wins a month’s refuge at an expensive Villa on Lake Como to work on his novel. The author however, is not really working on the book and a friend helped him fill in the application to receive the grant award. He is a part-time writer and full-time alcoholic. Not much happens in the book and he describes his month at the lake. He does a lot of drinking, sightseeing, eating, and observing the other guest scholars in the villa. He also mingles with the local townspeople quite a bit and is a bit of a ladies man.

The unnamed antihero, or hero of the book I guess represents Serbia and the people of his generation. Valijarevic is my age although the book was written 5 years ago. It made me think about what it would have been like to lose your country (Yugoslavia) and living standards that went with it after years of war and embargoes. It was quite traumatic for people his age who were just starting out in their careers when the whole thing went to pieces. The best review I read on the book is by Daniel Kelleher and here are the other books in the series by Geopoetika.

Titles that fall within the Geopoetika Serbian prose in Translation series under review include:

 

Nikola Tesla: The Serbian Steve Jobs

I just finished reading All About Tesla – How Nikola Tesla Invented the 20th Century by Michael Krause. I have heard much about the scientist and it was good to read a complete biography of him. His picture graces the 100 RSD note and the airport is named after him. The book is a bit dry, but Krause does a good job of covering the details of his life as well as mixing in his personal experience during the research on his life.

The famous "Blue Portrait" of Tesla, circa 1916

I would compare Tesla to Steve Jobs of today, but with bad business sense and a bit of autism/depression in the mix. He was one of the superstars of a new technology, electricity, and fortunes were made as the young industry got its start. It would have been amazing to live at that time, and the book captured the sense of society’s first reaction to electric light. Like the internet and computers of today, it fundamentally changed the way we lived. Before reading the book, I was under the impression that it was Thomas Edison versus Nikola Tesla to determine if direct current (DC) or alternating current (AC) would become the dominate form of electrical circuitry. But in reality, there were many more people involved than just those two. Tesla’s contribution was producing a motor that George Westinghouse used to become rich and have AC be the current of choice. Tesla’s big mistake was selling Westinghouse the patent and not collecting royalties. The generator allowed Westinghouse and then others produce enough power to transport the current over distances. Like Jobs, Tesla was famous for his presentations. He gave lectures all over the world that were known for his showmanship. He wowed crowds with his demonstrations of wireless transfer of electricity to light early fluoresent light bulbs.

Publicity Photo of Tesla in his Colorado Springs Laboratory - circa 1899

Tesla is a “rags to riches” story. His father was an Orthodox priest in a small village in Croatia. Tesla barely got into university in Austria. His uncle pulled some strings and he got in on a military scholarship. Like many peasants in the late 1800s, Tesla fled the Austro-Hungarian Empire (my ancestors did a few years after Tesla left) to go to the US to make his fortune. He eventually became a world-class inventor and scientist, and also a huge celebrity. He lived large, living in luxurious hotels his entire life, and gave lectures demonstrating all sorts of electrical phenomena, like flourescent light bulbs lighting without being plugged in. He was good friends with Mark Twain and other famous personalities. Due to his extravagant living, it was constantly a boom and bust for Tesla. Many venture capitalists like J.P. Morgan, invested in his research and development laboratories, but because he as a wacko and didn’t focus on products that could be sold for a profit, he lost a lot of people a lot of money. The lectures and his articles for New York journals, made him quite a celebrity. He lived life large!

Serbian currency with the measure of magnetic field unit named after him

Tesla did come up with many patents and his ideas were ahead of his time. His ideas contributed to someone else making money in the fields of radio, x-rays, hydro-electric power, remote-controlled submarines, etc. As he got older, he got more out there, focusing all of his experimentation on impossible schemes. He was obsessed with a tower in his lab in New Jersey. He had the idea of a super tower that could send electricity across the world, as well as being a weapon, kind of like a laser death-ray of science fiction. Indeed, many of his ideas were used by science fiction writers of his time. In comics in the 1940s, some writers based their “evil scientist” character on Tesla.

I loved his idea of tapping into the cosmos’ energy, kind of like being able to power devices on cosmic rays or dark matter or the collective consciousness of living beings. Maybe someday this will be a reality.

He had many strange quirks. He was celibate his entire life. He worked insane hours with little sleep (10:30 AM – 5:00 AM) and avoided all sunlight. This led to periods of exhaustion and depression. He had to put pieces of rubber under his bed for a time, because of his hyper bat-like senses wouldn’t let him sleep because he detected the friction of the bed posts and the floor.

He was also proud to be a Serbian and in his later years, the Yugoslavian government supported him. I learned from the book that his name may be Ukrainian, because Tesla is not a typical Serbian surname. He was a fascinating fellow to say the least and Serbia and Yugoslavia should be proud of his contributions to the human race. I really want to go see his museum here in Belgrade. I’ll do a post on my visit there.

If you want to read more about Tesla, there is a lot about him on the internet. This is a link to a New York Times’ article about his New York laboratory, “Wardenclyffe”, which is for sale.

KGB In LIthuania

 

I visited the Museum of Genocide Victims in Vilnius, Lithuania last week and really learned a lot. Above is a photo of Lithuanian Resistance Fighters in the cold woods of Lithuania. They first fought against the Nazis and then the Soviets, and continued fighting for 20 years after World War II ended! They were waiting for the Allies to come and take on the Russians, but they eventually lost hope and were either killed or escaped to the west.

What happened to the Lithuanian people last century is tragic and the museum documents many aspects of it. Stalin might be worse than Hitler. He exiled whole families to remote work camps in Siberia. Those were the lucky ones that were not executed. There are many stories of families trying to stay together in those harsh conditions.

The building is where the Gestapo and then eventually KGB were headquartered. I took the tour of the cells and execution room. What a horrible feeling that would have been to be carried away in the middle of the night and locked away in the basement of the secret police. One of the cells in particular struck me. As you can see below, there is a small, metal pedastel in the center of the cell. The floor was flooded with water and the prisoner’s only dry area was that little space. What cruel bastards they were!

It was strange to see eventually that Lithuanians replaced the Russians as KGB officers. I can imagine the effect of all those conspirators, informants, and spies on a society. It will take probably as long as the communist regime was in power to take away the effects of mistrust and hate sown in the people and structures. I can see why the Lithuanians are very closed and withdrawn to foreigners today.

It was a moving and informational experience and I highly recommend a visit if you are in Vilnius.

A real Molotov Cocktail

Historic Flag At Libyan Embassy

 

Rebel Flag , originally uploaded by bill kralovec.

I noticed that the rebels flag was raised this weekend at the Libyan Embassy here in Belgrade. I wonder who put it up? The “rebels” are moving in to the capital Tripoli, Gadhafi’s family is leaving the country, and it sounds like he is making a last stand in his home village. There still may be weeks or months of fighting in Libya, but it does look like there will be a change in government.

It is odd however that the official Libyan flag, which is all green, was taken down and the tri-color rebel flag put up. If Gadhafi approved the Ambassador and staff here, they quickly switched sides. I wonder who decided to raise this flag instead of the official one? Are all Libyan Embassies throughout the world changed the flag already?

Gadhafi was a terrible president for the country. I don’t have much hope for a good government coming from the rebels either however. Libya is cursed with oil reserves and as with most nations with oil, it doesn’t bring prosperity and a democratic society. I hope the rebels after they are done fighting, travel to Norway and see how they managed their oil money. Norway is one of the few countries that has been able to use its fossil fuel income to better its society. It has done so by basically putting most of the income in a trust fund and slowly selling its reserves. Having lived in Venezuela, another OPEC nation, I don’t have much hope for Libya…

Summer Reading

I’m loving the extra time I have to catch up on my pleasure reading. I love books and have been devouring them on my iPad. The iBook feature on my iPad is great. All of the NY Times list at my fingertips. I also love highlighting and adding notes to books. It has a nice feature of putting them all together at the end and it helps me reflect and consolidate my learning or opinions formed from my reading.

I really enjoy tennis – it is a great workout and good stress relief, plus it is a game I haven’t mastered yet. I enjoy the challenge of learning something new and hopefully with the new courts at our school, I play more next year.  I read Patrick McEnroe’s book, “Hardcourt Confidential.” I won’t go into the details of the book. My big take-aways are a better appreciation for the Davis Cup and some thoughts on pushing my children into tennis. McEnroe was the Captain of the US Davis Cup team for a long time and Nadia and I saw him when the US played Serbia. For a long time I wanted the Davis Cup to change to a Major or World Cup format by making it a two-week tourney with all teams coming together every other year for the World Championship of Tennis. It could be hosted by rotating countries and have a variety of surfaces each round. Because I live in Serbia, home of the defending champions, I prefer the current format because we get games in Serbia. I can’t wait for the semifinals against Argentina in September. McEnroe gives a good description of what is good about the Davis Cup.

The second item was his thoughts on what it takes to make it big in tennis. The game has changed to award physical athleticism instead of technique.Most professionals today are incredibly strong, quick, and can hit the ball with huge force. Many are big and I also learned one must hit with a top spin to attain the top speeds like Nadal and Nole.

My taller doppleganger - Former Czech Tennis Player Daniel Vacek

He also referred his famous brother’s best season when John went 82-3 for the season, the best winning percentage (96%) ever. Roger Federer came close in 2005 with an 81-4 record (95%). Novak Djokovic is on pace with a 48-1 record this year to beat it. (98%). Also in the book he mentioned playing against my “twin” Daniel Vacek. I remember looking at the guy, especially from the side, and he was a dead ringer for me. Strange watching someone who looks very similar to oneself playing on TV. He is much taller than me, but the resemblance is  striking.

In preparation for going to Vermont, I read Bill McKibben’s book, “Wandering Home.” He accurately described the lovely town of Burlington and the great state of Vermont. He highlighted all of the sustainable ways of living going on there. He is funny in observing that it is a “land of Saab-driving, goat-cheese eating Democrats.” My kind of place!

  • McKibben and also Deer Hunting With Jesus which I’ll blog about later, got me thinking about my choices and how we live. McKibben defined “hyperindividualism that thinks nothing of ruining everyone else’s view with a house four times too large for any conceivable purpose.”
  •  He also thinks outside the box, like the idea of “why does my floor have to be all one type of wood. Why can’t it be like the forest that surrounds us, which is roughly equal parts birch, beech, and maple?”
  • I didn’t know that Middlebury College in Vermont had famous language schools.
  • “Instead of working to afford certain pleasures, many maintained, they would find their pleasure in their work.”
  • He referred to two great environmental organizations, Earth First! and the Foundation For Deep Ecology. My beliefs fit in quite well with the mission and philosophy of these groups.
  • “A world where we could take our pleasure more in the woods than in the mall.”

Burlington, Vermont – Or Should I Say “Utopialington”

I will be posting some of my learning from the Institute for Global Sustainability at the University of Vermont. I earned a Professional Certificate in Campus Sustainability Leadership. The posts on this blog will be about aspects of the course not related to education directly.

Vermont, and the city of Burlington really impressed me. It is a great university town and they are on the cutting edge of global society with their commitment to sustainabilty. It reminded me of Portland and Seattle, in this regard. The city is an ultra-liberal, “green” state that resonated with my own political and social philosophy. They are way ahead of the game and like California, I feel that they are one of the drivers of where our society is headed. It is much like my favorite university town, Marquette, Michigan, but with a bit more money and New England influence. Many people making political statements all over place and plenty of Volvos and Subarus.

Burlington’s Environmental Specialist, Jennifer Green, came and presented the projects the city is doing. My notes are below. If you don’t want to read the whole post, I will summarize. I was impressed with all of the projects the city does to promote sustainability. Not only regarding fossil fuels reduction, recycling, etc., but what they have done in the human part of sustainability.

Lake Champlain - City Beach

Jennifer Green’s Bio:

Jennifer Green is Burlington’s environmental specialist. She has over 20 years of community development experience, including work on gender equity, national planning, and environmental management with the Peace Corps, CARE International, Chemonics, and the World Resources Institute. Shortly after moving to Burlington in 1999, she consulted with the Vermont Energy Investment Corporation and later Efficiency Vermont. In addition to working for the City, Jennifer has taught several environmental and sustainable development courses at the University of Vermont. She has a masters in public adminstration from Columbia University and earned her PhD in environmental sociology from American University in 2005.

 

My notes from her presentation.

Cities and municipalities now have Sustainability Directors which is just behind the university sector in leading society’s charge towards sustainability. The Sustainability Director for the city of Burlington, Jennifer Greene, came and spoke to us. The first city (over 20 years ago) to have a Director was Portland, and they were way ahead of other cities. This is a growing field and she has 70 colleagues in her network. She is also has strong ties to the economic development office. Burlington is unique in that they have a strong Progressive Party that in the 1980’s, made the Church Street a walking street. The mayor, Peter Clavelle, was a visionary and he is the one responsible for the walking street. He also started the Burlington Legacy Project in 1999. This was the first comprehensive sustainability legacy plan. The key to the success was that he called in many different sectors like the business community, city government, and the universities.

When the plan was formed, they were concerned about the “big box” stores in Williston as well as trying to keep housing affordable. The city is divided into 7 wards and they have monthly meetings. For example, the big issue in the ward 1 meeting last night, Ms. Greene said, was noise. There is a $500 noise ordinance that now the students collect money at the door for the fine to get around it. The Steering Committee consists of reps from all of the organizations. UVM, K-12 local school district, Fletcher Health (hospital), Main Street Landing (developer), United Way (NGO), etc. with 24 members.

The housing issue is huge. With a 1% vacancy rate, and a median house price of $260,000. There is a high poverty rate and they are a refugee center. The city embraces this because they appreciate diversity but there are challenges in the schools and social services. The idea is to get the anchor institutions to fund the process of getting citizens into planning. One of the nicest things the city has done is to put affordable housing on prime lake view property. They view the lake views and beach access as a public good and so poor people should have the right for this because they are a “public good.”

When they lost the Price Shopper grocery store, there was a lot of angst because people would have to go on the highway to a big chain grocery store and this would also mean that the dollars going out of town. They decided to move a community-owned Cooperative with locally purchased food and it is now the largest and most profitable coop in the USA. The population of Burlington is steady at 42,000, which is about a gain of 2,000 people in 50 years. There is a debate on growth and some want to keep it as it is and others feel they need to grow to keep the economy vital.

When using student interns, it is important to tie it to a grade. Also, the ones that come in with a complaint are a great source of work. They also have a town meeting each year, the big takeaway was the poor quality food in local schools. It went to 50,000 pounds of local food, salads bars, composts in all schools and the food director is a nationally wanted speaker. The city has remained steady in electricity use from the 1980’s despite computers, microwaves, televisions in every room, etc.

The city also has a Climate Action Plan. With the severe flooding this year, the bike path and 700 homes were lost. This is part of the “climate adaptation” plan they are doing.

http://burlingtonlegacyproject.org/

Vermont Organic Farming

During the Sustainability Course we visited the the Intervale Center here in Burlington. Pictured above is Dr. Tom Hudspeth, a professor of Environmental Studies at the University of Vermont. The university is supporting the work of the Intervale Center. Intervale basically trains and financially helps people get into organic farming. Many UVM students have moved into organic farming as a career. They also are into river habitat restoration and they also have a community gardening.

Nadia and I were very influenced by Michael Pollan’s book, The Omnivore’s Dilemma and he featured the farm and farms like that in his book. It is part of a larger movement to bring back small farms and move away from the large agro-business model of fruits and veggies that supply the big supermarket chains. When Burlington’s big supermarket left a few years ago, they were able to form a cooperative market that is now the envy of the high-end supermarkets, all Burlington-owned and operated.

Menu for the Community Farmers' Market

I loved the idea of the community garden where people can buy shares or rent plots to use. They then have access to the weekly market. It is a slow food movement which of knowing where your food comes from. We had some long discussions on the viability of farming as a career. I like to see small farming coming back.

Latest Reading: “In the Garden of Beasts” by Erik Larson

With the long flights I was able to finish my latest book. It is a historical fiction that focuses on the US Ambassador in Germany during the first several years of Hitler’s term as Chancellor in the early 1930’s. Larson is so good at making history come alive and I couldn’t put the book down. He did so much research and weaved so many facts and actual diary/memoir entries into the narrative that makes it almost read as a non-fiction.

It made me re-think the rise of Hitler and the ordinary German citizen’s role in the rise of the Nazi party and the eventual start of WW II. In hindsight it is easy to criticize how American officials acted, knowing that Hitler eventually would want to wipe out all Jews and take over the world. There were many people that realized this, especially those living in Germany at the time. I loved the book also because it is a book about expat life, and I could easily empathize with Ambassador Dodd having his family overseas. His daughter was quite an item back then, and she dated many of the Nazi officials and even a Soviet spy (all true).

I didn’t realize how much fighting there was within the Nazi party. This was especially true while Hitler was establishing himself and re-arming Germany. Hitler and his inner circle were all a bunch of young (my age) psychopaths leading the country to war. I don’t understand how his view point could be adapted by so many people. The “brown shirts” with their marches, strict laws against the Jews, and his speeches full of rage… There was something obviously off about the guy and I don’t understand how the conditions Germany after World War I, could allow the opportunity for someone like that to come to power.

Many in the government were critical of the US Ambassador, William Dodd. But in hindsight, a policy of appeasement or more neutrality would not have given us any influence on the Nazis. To tie it in with Serbia, this would eventually lead to the April 6, 1941 bombing of the city.

The book is moving up the NY Times Best Seller list and I highly recommend it.